doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2657.1pmid: N/A
The Meteorological Service of Canada held a series of three Forecasters Forum meetings between 2003 and 2005 to seek input from the meteorological community on the best ways to implement a restructuring strategy and to develop a common vision related to the provision of weather forecasts. The meeting provided significant insight into a number of topics related to operational forecasting in Canada and have added to the larger discussion on these issues in the international meteorological community.During the course of the three forums, several themes emerged as overarching concerns. Foremost among them was the future role of the human forecaster. Most forum participants believed that human forecasters should be the heart of weather prediction, with an increased emphasis on the analysis/diagnosis/prognosis paradigm, and recommended developing the sophisticated tools required to facilitate that role.Using results from the forums, it is suggested here that the primary role of the future forecaster should be to develop and maintain a sequence of plan-view composite depictions evolving through time to best represent the current and future states of the atmosphere. This would be accomplished using an area-based, object-oriented analysis/forecast system, with a toolbox of numerical weather prediction guidance and carefully designed artificial intelligence assistants. The forecaster's work would be focused on high-impact weather events, mainly in the short term but also in the longer term when necessary. Products would be automatically generated from the weather object database, allowing the forecast team to focus on hands on meteorology and maintaining shared situational awareness at all times.
Brooks, Ian M.; Yelland, Margaret J.; Upstill-Goddard, Robert C.; Nightingale, Philip D.; Archer, Steve; d'Asaro, Eric; Beale, Rachael; Beatty, Cory; Blomquist, Byron; Bloom, A. Anthony; Brooks, Barbara J.; Cluderay, John; Coles, David; Dacey, John; DeGrandpre, Michael;
Berry, David I.; Kent, Elizabeth C.
doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2639.1pmid: N/A
The exchange, or flux, of heat between the oceans and atmosphere is an important driver of the global oceanic and atmospheric circulations but remains poorly quantified. Direct measurement of heat flux remains a research activity and so global heat flux datasets are generated using observations of winds, air and sea temperatures, and humidity as input to heat flux parameterizations known as bulk formulas. We remain dependent on the observations from merchant ships in the Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) program, which are archived in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS); measurements from buoys are sparse and satellites cannot accurately recover all the variables required for heat flux calculation.Careful analysis of VOS data is necessary to produce gridded datasets of meteorological variables and fluxes with the accuracy required for climate research. Past in situ flux datasets have averaged observations on monthly timescales to reduce random uncertainty. It has therefore been hard to understand the contributions to observed variability from measurement errors, poor sampling, or natural variability. The new dataset, which covers the period 1973 to 2006, avoids this problem by first constructing daily mean fields using optimal interpolation. This allows each component of variability to be handled correctly and, for the first time, uncertainty estimates to be produced. New bias adjustments have also been developed and applied. The new dataset is described and a preliminary comparison with flux estimates from moored buoys, satellites, and atmospheric reanalysis models is presented.
Legg, Sonya; Briegleb, Bruce; Chang, Yeon; Chassignet, Eric P.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Ezer, Tal; Gordon, Arnold L.; Griffies, Stephen; Hallberg, Robert; Jackson, Laura; Large, William; zgkmen, Tamay M.; Peters, Hartmut; Price, Jim; Riemenschneider, Ulrike;
Groisman, Pavel Ya.; Clark, Elizabeth A.; Kattsov, Vladimir M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Sokolik, Irina N.; Aizen, Vladimir B.; Cartus, Oliver; Chen, Jiquan; Conard, Susan; Katzenberger, John; Krankina, Olga; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil;
Showing 1 to 10 of 18 Articles
doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2578.1pmid: N/A
As part of the U.K. contribution to the international Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study, a series of three related projectsDOGEE, SEASAW, and HiWASEundertook experimental studies of the processes controlling the physical exchange of gases and sea spray aerosol at the sea surface. The studies share a common goal: to reduce the high degree of uncertainty in current parameterization schemes. The wide variety of measurements made during the studies, which incorporated tracer and surfactant release experiments, included direct eddy correlation fluxes, detailed wave spectra, wind history, photographic retrievals of whitecap fraction, aerosolsize spectra and composition, surfactant concentration, and bubble populations in the ocean mixed layer. Measurements were made during three cruises in the northeast Atlantic on the RRS Discovery during 2006 and 2007; a fourth campaign has been making continuous measurements on the Norwegian weather ship Polarfront since September 2006. This paper provides an overview of the three projects and some of the highlights of the measurement campaigns.
doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2667.1pmid: N/A
Oceanic overflows are bottom-trapped density currents originating in semienclosed basins, such as the Nordic seas, or on continental shelves, such as the Antarctic shelf. Overflows are the source of most of the abyssal waters, and therefore play an important role in the large-scale ocean circulation, forming a component of the sinking branch of the thermohaline circulation. As they descend the continental slope, overflows mix vigorously with the surrounding oceanic waters, changing their density and transport significantly. These mixing processes occur on spatial scales well below the resolution of ocean climate models, with the result that deep waters and deep western boundary currents are simulated poorly. The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team was established by the U.S. Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR) Program to accelerate the development and implementation of improved representations of overflows within large-scale climate models, bringing together climate model developers with those conducting observational, numerical, and laboratory process studies of overflows. Here, the organization of the Climate Process Team is described, and a few of the successes and lessons learned during this collaboration are highlighted, with some emphasis on the well-observed Mediterranean overflow. The Climate Process Team has developed several different overflow parameterizations, which are examined in a hierarchy of ocean models, from comparatively well-resolved regional models to the largest-scale global climate models.
doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2556.1pmid: N/A
Northern Eurasia, the largest landmass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ~20 of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate, environmental, and societal systems. More recently, the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies, including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate, environment, and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling across disciplines.