The Economic Journal

Bai, Ying

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead004pmid: N/A

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

Bayer, Christian; Born, Benjamin; Luetticke, Ralph; Müller, Gernot J

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead003pmid: N/A

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy were locked down and, as a result, households’ income risk rose sharply. At the same time, policy makers put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the United States it amounted to $2 trillion, a quarter of which represented transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers were (i) announced in advance and (ii) conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigated income risk associated with the lockdown—in contrast to unconditional transfers. We develop a baseline scenario for a COVID-19 recession in a medium-scale heterogeneous agent new Keynesian model and use counterfactuals to quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is negligible for unconditional transfers and about unity for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by some two percentage points at its trough.

Casey, Katherine; Glennerster, Rachel; Miguel, Edward; Voors, Maarten

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead001pmid: N/A

We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralised approach to economic development called community-driven development—a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid—by revisiting a randomised community-driven development program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that community-driven development may have slightly improved the communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about the effectiveness of community-driven development.

Eichner, Thomas; Kollenbach, Gilbert; Schopf, Mark

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead002pmid: N/A

In a Hotelling model with a climate coalition and a free-riding fringe, we compare demand-side and supply-side climate policies aimed at keeping CO$_2$ concentration below a ceiling equivalent to global warming of $2^\circ{\rm C}$. With the demand-side policy, the coalition caps its fuel demand. The corresponding allocation is intra-temporally distorted. With the supply-side policy, the coalition purchases deposits. The corresponding allocation is inter-temporally distorted and the fuel extraction path can be discontinuous. In an empirically calibrated economy, a medium-sized (the grand) coalition is stable with the demand-side (supply-side) policy. If the coalition acts strategically, the stable grand coalition implements first best.

Heidhues, Paul; Köster, Mats; Kőszegi, Botond

doi: 10.1093/ej/ueac093pmid: N/A

Online intermediaries with information about a consumer’s tendencies often ‘steer’ her toward products she is more likely to purchase. We analyse the welfare implications of this practice for ‘fallible’ consumers, who make statistical and strategic mistakes in evaluating offers. The welfare effects depend on the nature and quality of the intermediary’s information and on properties of the consumer’s mistakes. In particular, steering based on high-quality information about the consumer’s mistakes is typically harmful, sometimes extremely so. We argue that much real-life steering is of this type, raising the scope for a broader regulation of steering practices.

Hensvik, Lena; Müller, Dagmar; Skans, Oskar Nordström

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead007pmid: N/A

Using Swedish economy-wide data, we examine the relationship between business-cycle conditions and the use of social contacts in the process where young workers are matched to their first real jobs. We measure social contacts acquired during paid work during high school, and we rely on interacted class-establishment fixed-effect models to isolate the effects of interest. One-third of post-graduation matches are formed at establishments where youths worked during their studies. Graduates are much more likely to match with sites to which adult co-workers from these jobs have relocated. The importance of these job-finding channels is strongly counter-cyclical for young labour market entrants.

Silva, Dejanir H

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead013pmid: N/A

This paper studies optimal fiscal policy in a currency union subject to capital flow shocks in an economy with two main ingredients: (i) sticky prices and (ii) financially constrained arbitrageurs. Given capital outflows and high external debt, the fiscal authority faces a trade-off between stimulating the economy or paying off external debt. The planner reduces the value-added tax in the short run, while it raises and front-loads the sum of value-added tax and payroll taxes. It is not optimal to use spending to stimulate the economy. The country engages in a fiscal consolidation, as government debt falls compared with a passive fiscal policy.

Bauer, Michal; Cahlíková, Jana; Chytilová, Julie; Roland, Gérard; Želinský, Tomáš

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead005pmid: N/A

Do members of a majority group systematically shift punishment onto innocent members of an ethnic minority? We introduce an experimental paradigm, punishing the scapegoat game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander. When no harm is done, we find no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority (Roma people in Slovakia). In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment ‘passed’ onto innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group.

Bertolotti, Fabio; Gavazza, Alessandro; Lanteri, Andrea

doi: 10.1093/ej/uead006pmid: N/A

We study the role of new-product quality for the dynamics of durable-good expenditures around the Great Recession. We assemble a rich dataset on US new-car markets during 2004–12, combining data on transaction prices with detailed information about vehicles’ technical characteristics. During the recession, a reallocation of expenditures away from high-quality new models accounts for a significant decline in the dispersion of expenditures. In turn, car manufacturers introduced new models of lower quality. The drop in new-model quality persistently depressed the technology embodied in vehicles, and likely contributed to the slow recovery of expenditures.