International Studies Quarterly

Daßler, Benjamin; Heinkelmann-Wild, Tim; Huysmans, Martijn

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae146pmid: N/A

Materially powerful states tend to dominate both the creation of international organizations (IOs) as well as subsequent IO policymaking. Materially weak states are nevertheless expected to participate in IOs since it is generally assumed that they will still profit from cooperation and prefer power to be exercised through institutions. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how exactly institutional rules protect weak states from the powerful in IOs. This paper develops a theory of institutional design that specifies the institutional power equilibrium at the heart of IOs’ constitutional treaties. Through the inclusion of veto or exit rights, weak states obtain formal safeguards against exploitation by the powerful during an IO’s operation. This expectation of a power equilibrium in IOs’ design is borne out in design patterns within the constitutional treaties of IOs created between 1945 and 2005. Our results indicate that the distribution of power among an IO’s founding members indeed affects the inclusion of institutional safeguards in their constitutional treaties and that veto and exit rights are functional substitutes in this regard. Our findings matter since the institutional power equilibrium at IO creation has important implications for relations between the materially powerful and the weak during IO operations.

Lucas, Caleb

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae142pmid: N/A

How does rebel news affect the way civilians perceive the balance of power during conflict? While media campaigns are a common tactic during conflict for both insurgents and governments, there is very little empirical research that explores their effect on civilians. I argue that these campaigns play an important role in the construction of a rebel group’s reputation during conflict and the perception of their organization among non-combatants. This is because civilians suffer from an information disadvantage and struggle to accurately gauge the relative strength of actors in the conflict. I exploit the plausibly random introduction of the Taliban’s official radio station in Kabul during May 2018 to test the effect of rebel news on civilian attitudes. NATO’s Afghanistan Nationwide Quarterly Assessment Research survey happened to field a wave directly before and after this event. I use difference-in-differences to estimate the effect of exposure to the Taliban’s news and demonstrate that it increased perceptions of the group’s strength. This finding has important implications for the study of civilian attitude formation and support during conflict.

Zeng, Ka; Kim, Soo Yeon

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae117pmid: N/A

This paper leverages firm-level data to examine the impact of the US–China trade war on the greenfield investment of Chinese investors. Our research yields a few interesting findings. Importantly, our longitudinal analysis of Chinese greenfield investment projects yields evidence that the tariffs have dampened overall Chinese investment. Further analyses for different world regions indicate that while the tariffs have generally had a chilling effect on Chinese investment in most world regions, they may have prompted Chinese investors to engage in “tariff-jumping” in the United States. Our analysis further shows that the trade war may have incentivized Chinese investors to increasingly invest in countries with good political ties with Beijing, presumably as a buffer against potential downturns in bilateral relations. It may also have contributed, at least in part, to a reduced willingness by Chinese state-owned enterprises to engage in overseas investment. However, we found no evidence that the tariffs have led to a perceptible shift in China's investment flows toward BRI countries. Overall, these findings help to illuminate the extent to which policies of “decoupling” may have induced shifts in Chinese investors’ investment patterns, at least in the short-run.

Peez, Anton; Bethke, Felix S

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae145pmid: N/A

Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elite decision-makers. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a preregistered experiment within the 2022 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment ($N = 253$). We used contemporary public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a salient issue and real-world treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0 percent to 76.3 percent (+8.3 pp.). While meaningful, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pretreatment dynamics related to issue salience and ceiling effects and is therefore all the more notable. We provide evidence for substantial treatment effect heterogeneity depending on subject-matter expertise, degree of involvement in political decision-making, and gender, but not party identification. While our results support previous research, they highlight issues of external validity and the context-dependence of elite responsiveness.

Haglund, Jillienne; Hillebrecht, Courtney

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae155pmid: N/A

sInternational human rights institutions impose obligations on their member states that extend long past the ratification stage. Each year, states receive tens, or even hundreds, of recommendations from international human rights bodies. These recommendations demand that states change their human rights policies and practices. While recent scholarship has emphasized the important role of domestic institutions and civil society actors in facilitating compliance with these recommendations, comparatively little research examines how the quality of the recommendations themselves affects compliance outcomes. Using two novel datasets, this paper sets out to understand the nexus between recommendation quality and compliance. Our research suggests that highly precise recommendations move the needle away from inaction on international human rights institutions’ rulings and recommendations but make full compliance more difficult. This paper advances the existing literature on the dynamics of compliance and places some of the responsibility for compliance on the international human rights institutions themselves.

Pinto, Pablo M; Rickard, Stephanie J; Vreeland, James Raymond

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae150pmid: N/A

Does the intervention of an international organization in domestic politics render policy change more popular? While voters may ultimately care only about policy outcomes, the involvement of international actors often seems to lead to resentment. Still, citizens may have greater faith in the wisdom of international actors than in their own government. As others have argued, a well-respected international actor might provide a cue, especially for voters considering controversial policies like spending cuts. We test this argument in a novel pre–post experimental panel study conducted in Spain. We find that citizens become less opposed to unpopular spending cuts when informed that they are required by an international institution. The effects differ, however, across the two organizations that we test: They are stronger for the European Union than for the International Monetary Fund. Our findings lend support to studies arguing that the endorsement of specific international organizations can help push through otherwise unpopular policies.

Postnikov, Evgeny; Gamso, Jonas

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae152pmid: N/A

sThe number of preferential trade agreements signed among non-democratic states (autocratic PTAs) has grown significantly over the last decades. Trade policy scholarship remains silent on the institutional design of these autocratic economic arrangements. In this paper, we explore the core institutional characteristic of autocratic PTAs—their depth. It has been shown that many North–South and, increasingly, South–South PTAs tend to be deep, yet the depth of PTAs comprised of autocratic members remains puzzling, as government elites are faced with competing pressures for economic integration and political survival. We argue that autocratic PTAs tend to have considerable depth when it comes to the coverage of certain trade-plus issues, such as investment and trade-in services, due to the desire of government elites to attract trade and investment and enhance the ruling regime's legitimacy and political survival. However, dispute settlement provisions that could breach domestic political autonomy are carefully eschewed. We also expect to see higher levels of agreement flexibility in deep autocratic PTAs, reflecting autocrats’ dual interests in economic openness and political control. We test these expectations using data from the Design of Trade Agreements Database and we carry out interviews with trade officials to clarify the mechanisms at work.

Narayanan Kutty, Sumitha; Ladwig III, Walter C

doi: 10.1093/isq/sqae144pmid: N/A

As a rising India has sought both standing and recognition in the international system, observers have debated whether revisionist or status quo tendencies have characterized the country’s engagement with the outside world since the end of the Cold War. One way to gain insight into such issues is to study the behavior of its apex leaders. Face-to-face diplomacy and high-level visits are an increasingly prominent feature of India’s international relations. Given the scarce nature of senior officials’ time, where they choose to travel can serve as a key indicator of their priorities. Employing an original data set, we analyze the factors shaping foreign travel by Indian prime ministers and foreign ministers between 1992 and 2019. These indicate that strategic interests—rather than ideological affinity with the Global South, domestic politics, or bureaucratic routine—have the primary role in shaping India’s foreign engagement. Since foreign visits are purposeful, where Indian leaders travel can be assessed for indicators of revisionist or status quo leanings in the country’s foreign policy. Although examination of the specific patterns of overseas visits does not indicate definitive membership of either camp, they do highlight aspects of India’s contested relationship with the current international order.