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Greenwald, Daniel L.; Lettau, Martin; Ludvigson, Sydney C.
doi: 10.1086/734089pmid: N/A
Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%) and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952–88 experienced only one-third as much growth in market equity, but economic growth accounted for more than 100% of it.
doi: 10.1086/734094pmid: N/A
I develop a quantitative theory of bilateral trade agreements with intellectual property (IP) provisions in a multicountry growth model. The model’s dynamics are driven by innovation and technology licensing. Imperfect IP enforcement leads to reduced royalty payments and growth. Governments negotiate tariffs and IP enforcement through Nash bargaining. Gains from the trade agreement vary along the transition. Developing countries experience short-term losses, while developed countries gain in both the short and long runs. A government with short-term goals may reduce losses but at the cost of lower growth and welfare. Tariffs could discourage developing countries from deviating from the agreement.
Flinn, Christopher J.; Todd, Petra E.; Zhang, Weilong
doi: 10.1086/734092pmid: N/A
This paper examines the effects of the Big Five personality traits on labor market outcomes and gender wage gaps using a job search and bargaining model with parameters that vary at the individual level. The analysis, based on German panel data, reveals that both cognitive and noncognitive traits significantly influence wages and employment outcomes. Higher conscientiousness and emotional stability and lower agreeableness levels enhance earnings and job stability for both genders. Differences in the distributions of personality characteristics between men and women account for as much of the gender wage gap as do the large differences in labor market experience.
doi: 10.1086/734096pmid: N/A
I derive a general condition on consumer behavior ensuring that, in a standard model of demand-determined output, any path of inflation and output that is implementable via interest rate policy is also implementable through time-varying uniform transfers. In an analytical model with occasionally binding borrowing constraints, my condition holds generically. In a quantitative heterogeneous-agent model, the transfer policy that closes any given demand shortfall is furthermore well characterized by a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. My results extend to environments with investment if transfers are supplemented by another standard fiscal tool: bonus depreciation.
Adda, Jérôme; Pinotti, Paolo; Tura, Giulia
doi: 10.1086/734093pmid: N/A
We analyze the contribution of legal status incentives on the marriage choices of natives and migrants. Access to legal status reduces the probability of immigrants intermarrying with natives by 40% and increases the hazard rate of separation for intermarriages by 20%. We develop and estimate a multidimensional equilibrium model of marriage, fertility, and separation, where individuals match on observed and unobserved characteristics. Allowing for trade-offs between cultural distance, legal status, and other socioeconomic spousal characteristics, we quantify the role of legal status and the strength of cultural preferences and evaluate the welfare consequences of granting legal status to immigrants.
Kolotilin, Anton; Corrao, Roberto; Wolitzky, Alexander
doi: 10.1086/734095pmid: N/A
We consider general Bayesian persuasion problems where the receiver’s utility is single-peaked in a one-dimensional action. We show that a signal that pools at most two states in each realization is always optimal and that such “pairwise” signals are the only solutions under a nonsingularity condition on utilities. Our core results provide conditions under which the induced receiver action is single-dipped or single-peaked on each set of nested signal realizations. We also provide conditions for the optimality of either full disclosure or negative assortative disclosure, where all signal realizations are nested. Methodologically, our results rely on novel duality and complementary slackness theorems. Our analysis extends to a general problem of assigning one-dimensional inputs to productive units, which we call “optimal productive transport.” This problem covers additional applications including matching with peer effects (assigning workers to firms, students to schools, or residents to neighborhoods), robust option pricing (assigning future asset prices to price distributions), and partisan gerrymandering (assigning voters to districts).
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