Management Science

Marsden, James R.; Tung, Y. Alex

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1025pmid: N/A

Issues related to insider trading remain popular research topics. Empirical studies using historical data are limited by two key factors: 1) the inability to identify exactly who possesses inside information, and 2) the inability to identify the accuracy of information possessed. Advances in information system technology enable us to overcome these problems in the laboratory. Using this technology, we create a research shell to conduct experiments where we can identify the exact type and quality of information accessible by each trader. Our system includes the capability to monitor individual activities in accessing inside information. The system can automatically impose a monetary penalty if random monitoring identifies a trader accessing inside information. Our experiments involve traders who receive access to inside information without initial knowledge of the quality of that information. The results indicate that traders were able to outperform the market if penalties for being caught accessing such information were not included. Once penalties were included, however, no significant performance differences were observed. Finally, in a second set of experiments involving a simplified market with infrequent electronic monitoring and low penalty amounts, inside information seemed to be rapidly and effectively disseminated to traders possessing no inside information.

Krishna, Aradhna; Zhang, Z. John

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1041pmid: N/A

United States firms collectively spend over $6.5 billion annually on coupon promotions and are becoming increasingly concerned with their profitability. FSI (free-standing-insert) data show that coupon duration varies across brands. In this paper, we show how coupon duration can affect coupon profitability. We also provide answers for some empirical observations on coupon duration. We explain, for example, why (i) coupon duration will vary across firms, such that large market share firms will give short-duration coupons and small market share firms will give long-duration coupons; (ii) longer coupon duration for one brand will increase redemption for coupons of that brand and of a competing brand; (iii) coupon duration will affect coupon profitability.

Fischer, Gregory W.; Carmon, Ziv; Ariely, Dan; Zauberman, Gal

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1057pmid: N/A

Preferences inferred from choice are more likely to favor the alternative that is superior with respect to the prominent (most important or salient) attribute than are preferences inferred from matching (direct tradeoff) judgments. This prominence effect violates standard models of rational choice and complicates the task of measuring preferences. In this article, we propose a new task-goal hypothesisregarding the prominence effect: The prominent attribute receives more weight in tasks whose goal is to differentiate among options than in tasks whose goal is to equate options. We use this hypothesis to generalize the prominence effect beyond choice and matching to several additional tasks, including the choice-based matching and difference comparison methods that are widely employed in decision analysis. The results of three studies provide strong support for the task-goal account of the prominence effect and cast doubt on competing explanations. We discuss the implications of these findings for descriptive decision theory and for preference measurement in decision analysis, public policy, and marketing.

Chen, Fangruo

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1076pmid: N/A

We consider a supply chain whose members are divisions of the same firm. The divisions are managed by different individuals with only local inventory information. Both the material and information flows in the supply chain are subject to delays. Under the assumption that the division managers share a common goal to optimize the overall performance of the supply chain (i.e., they act as a team), we characterize the optimal decision rules for the divisions. The team solution reveals the role of information leadtimes in determining the optimal replenishment strategies. We then show that the owner of the firm can manage the divisions as cost centers without compromising the systemwide performance. This is achieved by using an incentive-compatible measurement scheme based on accounting inventory levels. Finally, we investigate the impact of irrational behavior on supply chain performance and demonstrate that it is important for the upstream members of the supply chain to have access to accurate customer demand information.

Cachon, Gérard P.; Lariviere, Martin A.

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1091pmid: N/A

We consider a simple supply chain in which a single supplier sells to several downstream retailers. The supplier has limited capacity, and retailers are privately informed of their optimal stocking levels. If retailer orders exceed available capacity, the supplier allocates capacity using a publicly known allocation mechanism, a mapping from retailer orders to capacity assignments. We show that a broad class of mechanisms are prone to manipulation: Retailers will order more than they need to gain a more favorable allocation. Another class of mechanisms induces the retailers to order exactly their needs, thereby revealing their private information. However, there does not exist a truth-inducing mechanism that maximizes total retailer profits.We also consider the supplier's capacity choice. We show that a manipulable mechanism may lead the supplier to choose a higher level of capacity than she would under a truth-inducing mechanism. Nevertheless, her choice will appear excessively restrictive relative to the prevailing distribution of orders. Furthermore, switching to a truth-inducing mechanism can lower profits for the supplier, the supply chain, and even her retailers. Hence, truth-telling is not a universally desirable goal.

Silverman, Brian S.

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1109pmid: N/A

This study considers how a firm's resource base affects the choice of industries into which the firm diversifies. It offers two main extensions of prior research. First, it operationalizes technological resources at a more detailed level than in prior studies, thereby enabling a more stringent analysis of the direction of diversification. This analysis shows that the predictive power of the “resource-based view of the firm” is greatly improved when resources are measured at a finer level. Second, the study integrates principles from transaction cost economics into resource-based predictions concerning diversification. In particular, it tests the common assumption that rent-generating resources are too asset specific to allow contracting. The findings point to circumstances where resources can be and are exploited through contracting rather than through diversification.

Asmussen, Søren; Rubinstein, Reuven Y.

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1125pmid: N/A

We show how, from a single simulation run, to estimate the ruin probabilities and their sensitivities (derivatives) in a classic insurance risk model under various distributions of the number of claims and the claim size. Similar analysis is given for the tail probabilities of the accumulated claims during a fixed period. We perform sensitivity analysis with respect to both distributional and structural parameters of the underlying risk model. In the former case, we use the score function method and in the latter, a combination of the push-out method and the score function. We finally show how, from the same sample path, to derive a consistent estimator of the optimal solution in an optimization problem associated with excess-of-loss reinsurance.

Ernst, Ricardo; Kouvelis, Panagiotis

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1142pmid: N/A

In this paper, we study within a newsboy type modeling framework the common business practice of retail firms to sell products not only as independent items, but also as part of multiproduct packets (packaged goods). Our emphasis is on understanding the effects of such practices on the inventory decisions of the firm. We provide insights on the resulting level of suboptimality when inventory decisions are made with demand information only on the independent items and without accounting for the demand substitution structure induced between independent items and packaged goods. Our stylized model studies an environment with two products that are not direct substitutes for each other, sold either independently or as part of a packet that contains one unit of each. We provide necessary and sufficient optimality conditions for this model and suggest an efficient numerical search for obtaining the optimal stocking levels. An extensive computational study allowed us to provide insights on the nature of the optimal stocking policies, the suboptimality of independent newsboy policies, the effects of demand correlation among individual products and multiproduct packets, and the determining role of induced substitution structure among products during stockout occasions on the profitability of the inventory system.

Ziarati, Koorush; Soumis, François; Desrosiers, Jacques; Solomon, Marius M.

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1156pmid: N/A

The problem of assigning locomotives to trains consists of selecting the types and number of engines that minimize the fixed and operational locomotive costs resulting from providing sufficient power to pull trains on fixed schedules. The force required to pull a train is often expressed in terms of horsepower and tonnage requirements rather than in terms of number of engines. This complicates the solution process of the integer programming formulation and usually creates a large integrality gap. Furthermore, the solution of the linearly relaxed problem is strongly fractional.To obtain integer solutions, we propose a novel branch-and-cut approach. The core of the method consists of branching decisions that define on one branch the projection of the problem on a low-dimensional subspace. There, the facets of the polyhedron describing a restricted constraint set can be easily derived. We call this approach branch-first, cut-second. We first derive facets when at most two types of engines are used. We then extend the branching rule to cases involving additional locomotive types.We have conducted computational experiments using actual data from the Canadian National railway company. Simulated test-problems involving two or more locomotive types were solved over 1-, 2-, and 3-day rolling horizons. The cuts were successful in reducing the average integrality gap by 52% for the two-type case and by 34% when more than 25 types were used. Furthermore, the branch-first, cut-second approach was instrumental in improving the best known solution for an almost 2,000-leg weekly problem involving 26 locomotive types. It reduced the number of locomotives by 11, or 1.1%, at an equivalent savings of $3,000,000 per unit. Additional tests on different weekly data produced almost identical results.

Gardner, Everette S.

doi: 10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1169pmid: N/A

This paper evaluates the ex ante performance of rule-based time series forecasting systems proposed in earlier research. The author shows that comparable performance can be obtained with a simpler alternative, a damped-trend version of exponential smoothing fitted to minimize the Mean-Absolute-Deviation (MAD) criterion. The results suggest that the performance of rule-based systems would be improved through this alternative and that time series forecasters should consider MAD fits in model development.