Uncertainty and its perception: experimental study of the numeric expression of uncertainty in two decisional contextsSartori, Riccardo; Ceschi, Andrea
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9365-1pmid: N/A
According to a consolidated tradition of research about the psychology of decisions (Newell et al. 2007) and the psychometric psychology (Sartori 2008), the present study aims at analysing the preferences of individuals between the main numeric expressions of uncertainty: the probabilistic form (expressed by percentages) and the fractional form (expressed by fractions). The purpose is to verify a different management of credit on the basis of a different expression of the representation of risk. The scientific outline refers to the most relevant studies in the field of decision making, which show the demonstrations and the experiments carried out by different authors starting from the investigations by Kahneman and Tversky. These results joined in their most accredited two theories: the Framing Effect and the Cumulative Prospect Theory, an evolution of the Prospect Theory. The following survey is designed to experimentally demonstrate the change in preferences on the basis of a different numeric representation of uncertainty. The study considers a generic sample of 100 individuals who were submitted two questionnaires especially designed. The obtained data were drawn up with statistic means in order to find out common norms in decision-making processes. The results showed the tendency of individuals to assign a different preference on the basis of the numeric representation, probabilistic or fractional. Referring to this feedback, one hypothesis is proposed as well as a new theory linked to the informative context of the options is presented.
Intergroup contact and reduction of explicit and implicit prejudice toward immigrants: a study with Italian businessmen owning small and medium enterprisesVezzali, Loris; Giovannini, Dino
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9366-0pmid: N/A
A field study was conducted to test the effectiveness of intergroup contact (Allport, The nature of prejudice, 1954) as a predictor of explicit and implicit attitudes toward immigrants and to examine the processes driving its effects. Participants were Italian businessmen owning small and medium enterprises in Northern Italy who had daily contact with their immigrant workers. We tested a model in which contact ameliorated explicit attitudes, measured as support for social policies toward immigration, through reduced negative outgroup stereotypes. Furthermore, we predicted that contact would have a direct, unmediated effect on improved implicit attitudes toward immigrants, assessed with an Implicit Association Test (Greenwald et al., J Personal Soc Psychol 74:1464–1480, 1998). The results were fully consistent with predictions, thus providing strong support for the contact hypothesis at both an explicit and at an implicit level. The lack of correlation between explicit and implicit attitudes supports dual-process models, suggesting that the two types of attitudes are formed through different processes. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.
Computer assisted text analysis in the social sciencesBrier, Alan; Hopp, Bruno
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9350-8pmid: N/A
We use the term “Computer Assisted Text Analysis” in a broad sense to refer to a range of current techniques from quantitative social science and content analysis to ‘data mining’ and ‘text classification’, including the analysis of open-ended survey questions, transcribed interviews and speeches, wherever, in fact, the researcher is confronted with data in the form of natural language texts of social scientific interest. These methods are often used in exploratory data analysis, but can also be applied systematically with moderate statistical rigour in the development and testing of hypotheses at various theoretical levels, ranging from the statistics of word usage to changes within or between discourses over time. The general approach is in the tradition of content analysis, by which words which occur together in relatively close proximity in the same context are interpreted as relating to a common theme or concept in the discourse studied. We review a comprehensive set of tools to identify and visualize structures of co-occurrence of words and concepts both within, and in comparing, a number of texts. These produce results not essentially different from those reached by representing word co-occurrences in terms of network analysis or neural network programming using schematic linguistic templates of various kinds. A comparison of the relational data analysis vs. a dictionary-based MDS approach shows that these provide very close if not identical results, despite the fact that the underlying assumptions are frequently represented as different theoretical approaches.
Model building and estimation strategies for implementing the Balanced Scorecard in Health sectorLovaglio, Pietro
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9364-2pmid: N/A
Over last two decades, the concept of the Balanced Scorecard has had broad application by the health sector internationally, including Hospitals systems and national healthcare systems or organizations. However, the lack of literature on causal-effect relationships between different types of dimensions and indicators poses difficulty in conceptualising and implementing a quality evaluation system based on Balanced Scorecard. Methodologically, the most natural context for Balanced Scorecard conceptualization and estimation deals with Structural Equation Models with latent variables. Partial Least Squares Path Modelling has found increased applications, thanks to its ability to handle complex models. However, the lack of a global optimization criterion makes it difficult to evaluate this procedure. The aim of this article is to propose a methodological conceptualization of the Balanced Scorecard in a new context, as the Health sector, using a suitable statistical approach to estimate causal relationships among specified latent dimensions, together with a model building strategy, a necessary step when expert knowledge is too weak to build a robust and well suited model. Specifically, within the Structural Equation Models framework a two-step model building strategy is presented; the first step build the measurement models based on a clustering (around latent variables) technique and the second step build the structural model based on partial correlations and a procedure that selects the best model in terms of predictive power, measured by the mean of the R
2 for the endogenous latent variables. Finally, an application based on administrative archives of Lombardy region (Italy) illustrates the presented methodology.
Economic patterns of sustainable development: an analysis of absolute ecological footprint through self-organizing mapCarlei, V.; Colantonio, E.; Furia, D.; Mattoscio, N.
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9362-4pmid: N/A
The aim of the present work is to demonstrate the relevance of some social-economic features as a complex factor for sustainable development. In particular we have considered the Absolute Ecological Footprint instead the Pro-Capita, as a better proxy in order to investigate Socio-Economic Patterns of sustainable development. We have also set out a methodology of non-linear analysis, based on Neural Networks Self Organizing Map in order to find relationship between the different kinds of Socio-Economic Patterns. The classic economic approach, indeed, cannot explain those patterns, cause they are dependent from its social and geographical context, in a complex and non-linear way by Carlei et al. (Scienze Regionali, 2008).
Growth and social capital: an evolutionary modelCorreani, Luca; Di Dio, Fabio; Garofalo, Giuseppe
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9363-3pmid: N/A
In this paper, we analyze the role of cooperation between firms through a model of growth and social capital. In a growth model à la Solow we incorporate the set of resources that a relational network has at its disposals, as a distinct production factor, and thus examine its dissemination through evolutionary type processes in firm interactions. Dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that cooperation is able to increase the productivity of factors, fostering a higher rate of growth in the long term. The most significant result is that scarcity of social capital can produce a general collapse of the economic system in areas in which long term growth is usually sustained by the learning by doing and spillover of knowledge phenomena. This conclusion leads to reconsider the role of local development economic policies that should concentrate on activities that promote repeated interaction between firms proven to be cooperative or that encourage the formation of technological consortia.
Methodological criteria for the internal validity and utility of practice oriented researchBleijenbergh, Inge; Korzilius, Hubert; Verschuren, Piet
doi: 10.1007/s11135-010-9361-5pmid: N/A
For conducting practice oriented research different research strategies are available. In this paper a typology is developed for differentiating between practice oriented research strategies that are data based and participatory research strategies. The former category involves quantitative and qualitative data based research strategies. The latter category, participatory research strategies, includes knowledge based research and practice based research. At present, methodological criteria for assessing the quality of practice oriented research heavily rely on those developed for theory oriented research, in particular internal and external validity and reliability. However, we argue that for assessing the results of practice oriented research other criteria are necessary. In this paper, methodological criteria are formulated for evaluating the internal validity and practical utility of practice oriented research with the help of a Delphi study using research methodologists as experts. They agree upon the criteria of verifiability, comprehensibility and acceptance of the results, as well as holism. Moreover, different categories of participatory and data based research strategies are compared to these criteria. Practice based research and qualitative data based research are best equipped to fulfill these criteria. These findings may enable researchers to make a more deliberate choice for a specific research strategy in practice oriented research.