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doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01193.xpmid: N/A
Abstract. Discrepant findings in electoral studies, particularly in relation to the importance of class, have re‐opened the issue of micro‐ versus macro‐levels of analysis. The ‘ecological’ and ‘individualist’ fallacies are again the subject of discussion. This article considers how similar issues arise in other sciences, natural as well as social, and shows how in many cases they are not resolved but lead to the development of sub‐sciences. It argues that beyond the micro/macro distinction lies another, that between ‘molecular’ and ‘structural’ approaches, which exist in parallel in most sciences. The corresponding types of data ‐ aggregate and integral ‐ are found at both levels of analysis. Thus we have to contend not with two distinct types of data, but with four: micro‐ and macro‐molecular, and micro‐ and macro‐structural. In electoral studies, as well as ‘individual’ and ‘ecological’, there are also ‘personal’ and ‘structural’ types of data to be considered, though the latter have largely been neglected in recent times. Drawing valid inferences between any two types of data is difficult. Even if fallacies are avoided, intractable problems may remain. On the experience of other sciences, electoral studies may well continue to develop along parallel but in some ways discrepant lines.
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01194.xpmid: N/A
Abstract. Merged survey and aggregate data sets allow examination of the inter‐relationship between individual characteristics and contextual variables. The addition of constituency context variables to the Canadian National Election study of 1979 enhances our ability to explain variations in partisanship. Party weakness in a constituency, female NDP candidates, and the lack of an incumbent seeking re‐election all render partisanship more flexible. Concentrations of Roman Catholics and the university educated in a constituency solidify Liberal and NDP strength respectively. Problems of study design and data interpretation presently limit our ability to utilize combined micro‐macro analysis.
BERGLUND, STEN; THOMSEN, SÖREN RISBJERG; WÖRLUND, INGEMAR
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01195.xpmid: N/A
Abstract. This paper focuses on the floating vote and the floating voter at three critical junctures in modern Swedish political history: the general elections of 1928, 1948, and 1968. The topic is in the mainstream of electoral research, but with one important proviso: it is a study of floating without the benefit of survey data. The analysis is based on Thomsen's (1987) method of ecological inference. The ecological estimates confirm the conventional wisdom that the Swedish elections of 1928, 1948 and 1968 were mobilizing elections, bringing large numbers of new voters to the polls, and marked by considerable mobility between the parties. They were also realigning in that they held out the possibility of a new status quo. In 1928 and 1948 the parties of the right were on the offensive; in 1968 the Social Democrats held the initiative. But the new coalitions were potentially unstable; it was the floating voters, particularly those with a previous history of non‐voting, who spelled the difference between defeat and victory. The paper makes an important contribution to the validation of Thomsen's method.
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01196.xpmid: N/A
Abstract. Four sources of variance are examined in the construction of ecological models of electoral behaviour: aggregation bias, contextual effects, temporal and spatial diffusion. The proper specification of both micro‐ and macro‐models of political behaviour requires these four sources of variance to be taken into account. Ecological analysis may make valid inferences to individual behaviour once the models are properly specified. Electoral data for Britain between 1955 and October 1974 are used to test a series of structural equation models specifying developmental relationships between class and electoral behaviour and taking into account the four potential sources of bias.
THOMSEN, SOREN RISBJERG; BERGLUND, STEN; WÖRLUND, INGEMAR
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.1991.tb01197.xpmid: N/A
Abstract. The logit method for ecological inference, presented by Thomsen in 1987, estimates individual level voting behaviour from aggregate election results. Making comparisons with survey results, this article tests the validity of ecological estimates of voter mobility between parties at three Danish, five Swedish and three Finnish election periods. For all three countries, the ecological estimates are rather close to survey results, but in the cases of Denmark and Sweden the validity of the ecological estimates seems lower than the validity of the survey results. However, for both countries, the differences between the ecological estimates and the survey results show a stable pattern which can be interpreted within the framework of a general logit theory.
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