Regional Environmental Change

Naylor, Angus William; Ford, James

doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02033-2pmid: N/A

The creation of a Transitional Committee to operationalise funding for loss and damage at the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) could prove a seminal moment for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Yet, in the context of loss and damage and wider climate financing, discourses of vulnerability and mechanisms and indices for appraising the impacts of climate change remain unfit for purpose. Establishing which Parties are the most vulnerable (and thus eligible for funding), accounting for intangible non-economic losses and making progress toward climate justice and disaster risk reduction while avoiding the issue of sociopolitical ‘root causes’ remains a monumental challenge.

Thrippleton, Timothy; Temperli, Christian; Krumm, Frank; Mey, Reinhard; Zell, Jürgen; Stroheker, Sophie; Gossner, Martin M.; Bebi, Peter; Thürig, Esther; Schweier, Janine

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-02015-wpmid: 36713958

Climate change severely affects mountain forests and their ecosystem services, e.g., by altering disturbance regimes. Increasing timber harvest (INC) via a close-to-nature forestry may offer a mitigation strategy to reduce disturbance predisposition. However, little is known about the efficiency of this strategy at the scale of forest enterprises and potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). We applied a decision support system which accounts for disturbance predisposition and BES indicators to evaluate the effect of different harvest intensities and climate change scenarios on windthrow and bark beetle predisposition in a mountain forest enterprise in Switzerland. Simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2100 under historic climate and climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In terms of BES, biodiversity (structural and tree species diversity, deadwood amount) as well as timber production, recreation (visual attractiveness), carbon sequestration, and protection against gravitational hazards (rockfall, avalanche and landslides) were assessed. The INC strategy reduced disturbance predisposition to windthrow and bark beetles. However, the mitigation potential for bark beetle disturbance was relatively small (− 2.4%) compared to the opposite effect of climate change (+ 14% for RCP8.5). Besides, the INC strategy increased the share of broadleaved species and resulted in a synergy with recreation and timber production, and a trade-off with carbon sequestration and protection function. Our approach emphasized the disproportionally higher disturbance predisposition under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, which may threaten currently unaffected mountain forests. Decision support systems accounting for climate change, disturbance predisposition, and BES can help coping with such complex planning situations.

Amin, Ariane; Wane, Abdrahmane; Kone, Inza; Krah, Michel; N’Goran, Ange

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-02017-8pmid: N/A

The impacts of climate change on agricultural systems in West Africa have been analyzed extensively. However, few studies have focused on livestock systems. Using export data for the period 1996–2017 and climate data for two major cattle suppliers (Mali and Burkina Faso) and one net importer (Côte d’Ivoire) in West Africa, we estimated a gravity model of temperature and cattle trade. Our study provides findings on the impacts of climate change on cattle supply. Indeed, we found that climate shocks in some major Sahel cattle-exporting countries, i.e., Mali and Burkina Faso, can affect the supply of a coastal import country, such as Côte d’Ivoire. Specifically, the study supports findings that a temperature increase in the Sudanian region of the Sahel induces a significant decrease in cattle trade flows. We found, as an example, that a 0.3 °C global increase in temperature could decrease cattle trade flow by 25%, which could happen to exports in 10 years from 2020 in the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), and in 06 years in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) at horizon 2050. There is a 67% and 80% chance, respectively, that this will happen, based on the climate change scenario. Our results are of great interest to cattle systems because they partly demonstrate the result of inaction in the face of climate change in that economic sector. In fact, if nothing is set up, significant disruption to cattle trade flow from Sahelian countries, which is projected to occur in the near future, could weaken regional economic integration in addition to raising the risk of food insecurity.

Enahoro, Dolapo; Kozicka, Marta; Pfeifer, Catherine; Jones, Sarah K.; Tran, Nhuong; Chan, Chin Yee; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gotor, Elisabetta; Rich, Karl M.

doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02038-xpmid: N/A

Standard tools that can quantitatively track the impacts of higher global demand for animal-sourced food to their local environmental effects in developing countries are largely missing. This paper presents a novel integrated assessment framework that links a model of the global agricultural and food system, a landscape-level environmental impact assessment model, and an ecosystem services simulation model. For Tanzania, this integrated assessment showed that a projected increase in the demand and production of foods of livestock origin with optimistic economic growth between 2010 and 2030 leads to an improvement in food security. However, resulting transitions in land use impact negatively on the future provisioning of ecosystem services, increasing phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment in runoff and reducing water quality in areas downstream of the agricultural expansion. Losses in ecosystem services are lowest when diversified farming practices are adopted in areas of agricultural land expansion. The role of land management in the environmental impacts of expanded livestock production is highlighted, as is the need for a new generation of analytical tools to inform policy recommendations.

Menesch, Joseph; Godde, Cecile; Venables, William; Renard, Delphine; Richardson, Anthony; Cobelli, Oceane; Waha, Katharina

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-02021-ypmid: N/A

Climate variability threatens food system stability, particularly among smallholders in developing countries who depend on rainfed agriculture. Farm diversification could be a relevant adaptation strategy in this context as a greater number of species or a more even distribution of crops is postulated to have a stabilizing effect on farm output as compared to a homogeneous farm. In this study, we aimed to explore relationships between climate variability, agricultural diversity, and crop yield stability. We used agriculture-focused panel data from Ethiopian households surveyed over four waves from 2011 to 2018 and two climate datasets to derive measures of long- and short-term climate variability. In a twofold analytical approach, we used mixed effects models to separately model (i) farm richness and pastoralism prevalence with climate variability as predictors, and (ii) crop yield stability with diversity, farm input, and climate characteristics as predictors. We found that farm diversity is highest in areas with high temperature variability, or low rainfall variability. This held even when excluding pastoralist households, who have naturally lower diversity. We further showed that pastoralism is least common in areas with high temperature variability and low month-to-month rainfall variability. Both crop richness and crop evenness positively affected temporal yield stability, with each showing a greater effect than irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticide usage. Together, these findings suggest that shifts in typical ranges of climate variability could destabilize farm-level crop yield for smallholders by limiting diversification opportunities. Our findings highlight the need for researchers and policymakers to consider not only the direct effects of climate variability on crop yield, but also its indirect effects on yield stability caused by increasingly limited adaptation choices.

da Silva Tavares, Priscila; Acosta, Ricardo; Nobre, Paulo; Resende, Nicole Costa; Chou, Sin Chan; de Arruda Lyra, André

doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1pmid: 36820201

This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil’s water security towards climate change.

García-del-Amo, David; Mortyn, Peter Graham; Reyes-García, Victoria

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-01981-5pmid: 36540304

While we know that climate change is having different impacts on various ecosystems and regions of the world, we know less how the perception of such impacts varies within a population. In this study, we examine patterns of individual variation in climate change impacts reports using data from a sample (n = 238) drawn from 33 mountainous municipalities of Sierra Nevada, Spain. Sierra Nevada inhabitants report multiple climate change impacts, being the most frequently reported changes in snowfall and snow cover, abundance of terrestrial fauna, freshwater availability, and extreme temperatures. Reports of climate change impacts vary according to informants’ sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. People with life-long bonds with the environment and higher connection and dependence upon ecosystem services report more climate change impacts than other informants, as do people with lower level of schooling. We also found that reports of climate change impacts vary according to geographic areas, which reinforces the idea that climate change generates differentiated impacts even at small geographical scales. Understanding intracultural variation in reports of climate change impacts not only gives an enriched picture of the human dimensions of climate change but might also help design more targeted mitigation and adaptation responses.

Vukeya, Loyd Rodney; Mokotjomela, Thabiso Michael; Malebo, Ntsoaki Joyce; Smith, David Alan Ehlers; Oke, Saheed

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-02024-9pmid: N/A

As a conservation strategy, the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) establishes biodiversity gardens in areas with unique vegetation types that are vulnerable to extinction. The study aimed to (1) determine the vegetation cover dynamics of the Free State National Botanical Garden (FSNBG) over a 30-year period (1987–2017), focusing on different vegetation classes; (2) evaluate the ecological integrity of the Critical Biodiversity Area 1 (CBA1) vegetation using species abundance and vegetation cover; and (3) quantify potential conservation threats that may be drivers of vegetation cover changes. The “moderate vegetation cover” and “dense vegetation cover” had increased by 25.1 ha and 8.6 ha respectively in the FSNBG. Woody vegetation cover expanded significantly over the past 30-year period, suggesting “bush” encroachment. Shannon–Wiener diversity indices showed high overall plant species diversity of CBA1 vegetation type (H = 3.5), with the vegetation cover remaining high (79.6 ± 15.9%), 50 plant species no longer existing, suggesting reduced taxonomic richness. Major conservation threats included the presence of 27 alien and invasive plant species interspersed within different vegetation patches and anthropogenic habitat fragmentation in the past 19 years (i.e. covering ~ 18% of the buffer zone). We conclude that increased vegetation cover is associated with bush encroachment and we recommend interventions to reduce the population density of woody plants and establish permanent vegetation monitoring plots.

Ebel, Sarah A.; Burnham, Morey; Reynolds, Jessica

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-01992-2pmid: N/A

As socio-ecological systems undergo regional environmental change, there is a need to create adaptive governance that can manage uncertainty through the coordination of actors. Social capital can help overcome some of these challenges to facilitate a transition to adaptive governance, but social capital has often been treated as a catch-all phrase without offering strong theoretical or empirical contributions to how social processes influence governance outcomes. This paper addresses this gap by offering empirical insights into the conditions that activate individuals’ linking social capital to form new institutions to adapt to environmental change in two small-scale fishing communities in southern Chile. We used a mixed methods approach to examine the relationship between linking social capital and whether or not our individuals in our study adapted their diving practices or joined new organizations as a form of adaptation. We then use ethnography to illuminate the community-level factors and mechanisms that fostered the ability for individuals to use their linking social capital to transition governance and why a collaborative transition was successful in one community, but not the other. This paper suggests that leadership, shared visions, and a culture of cooperation underpin successful governance transitions, while intra-community conflict inhibits transitions even when linking social capital is present.

Mi, Lina; Tian, Juncang; Si, Jianning; Chen, Yuchun

doi: 10.1007/s10113-022-02002-1pmid: N/A

In arid and semiarid irrigation area, the systematic influence of agricultural water-saving on eco-hydrological environment remained unclear at a regional scale. Based on long-temporal multisource data, this paper uses the water balance and empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) methodology to analyze the process and explore the mechanisms of eco-hydrological environment change in the Yinchuan Plain (YCP), an irrigated oasis in the upper reaches of Yellow River along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The results indicate that, after nearly 20 years of water-saving efforts, the total mean groundwater depth in the whole YCP increased 1.03 m in the irrigation period, and the increased depth of groundwater in the irrigation period is 0.70 m greater than the non-irrigation period. Average groundwater total dissolved solute (TDS) increased 5.7%, the increase in the northern YCP 4.2% higher than in the southern YCP, showing a slight tendency of salinization. Different from groundwater, soil salinity increased 3.64% in the southern YCP and decreased 50.57% in the northern YCP, the proportion of salinity area declined from 53.0 to 30.2%, exhibiting a differentiated and generally desalinizing trend. NDVI is increasing and the restoration effect in the northern YCP is more prominent than in the southern YCP. Most notably, the regional ET calculated from water balance in the whole YCP decreased from 883.8 to 453.2 mm (about 45.8%) during the period 2000 ~ 2017. Agricultural water-saving caused by the decreasing amount of water diversion is responsible for the eco-hydrological environment change in the YCP. An effective and rational water allocation and water-saving policy following variation of eco-hydrological circulation in the YCP is urgently needed.