TY - JOUR
AU - Bolton, Lisa E.
AB - The author investigates scenario generation and analogical reasoning as potential sources of bias in new product forecasting. In a series of studies, scenarios and analogies are shown to have persistent effects on judgment, despite subsequent use of corrective analytic techniques (e.g., counterfactual reasoning, counterscenarios, counteranalogies, decomposition, accountability). These findings demonstrate the robustness of nonanalytic processes on judgment and the need to be aware of their seductive effects.
TI - Stickier Priors: The Effects of Nonanalytic versus Analytic Thinking in New Product Forecasting
JF - Journal of Marketing Research
DO - 10.1509/jmkr.40.1.65.19129
DA - 2003-02-01
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/sage/stickier-priors-the-effects-of-nonanalytic-versus-analytic-thinking-in-BD95lmb0nd
SP - 65
EP - 79
VL - 40
IS - 1
DP - DeepDyve
ER -