TY - JOUR
AU - Tuomi, Ilkka
AB -  Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovations become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clarifies why policy, strategy, and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. 
TI - Foresight in an unpredictable world
JF - Technology Analysis & Strategic Management
DO - 10.1080/09537325.2012.715476
DA - 2012-09-01
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/taylor-francis/foresight-in-an-unpredictable-world-IP4Q2wEUK2
SP - 735
EP - 751
VL - 24
IS - 8
DP - DeepDyve
ER -