TY - JOUR
AU - Wise, James A.
AB - 3 groups of Ss revised their subjective probabilities about which of 2 hypotheses was true on the basis of sequences of data. Then they bid for bets on the hypotheses. One group, sequential estimation (SE), estimated after each datum; another, final estimation (FE), estimated only after seeing the entire sequence; and the 3rd group, bets only made no estimates, but merely bid for bets. SE and FE gave accurate and highly similar estimates. The subjective probabilities inferred from the bids for bets were highly similar for all 3 groups, and final estimates and inferred values were essentially the same for both the SE group and for the FE group. The conclusions are that Ss can use revised subjective probabilities in decisions about bets and that their use of subjective probabilities in bets on nonfrequentistic hypotheses conforms to previous findings about their use of subjective probabilities in bets on frequentistic events.
TI - Subjective probability revision and subsequent decisions
JF - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
DO - 10.1037/h0027919
DA - 1969-09-01
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/american-psychological-association/subjective-probability-revision-and-subsequent-decisions-LCOPFUSRSz
SP - 561
EP - 565
VL - 81
IS - 3
DP - DeepDyve
ER -