TY - JOUR
AU1 - Leininger, Arndt
AU2 - Schaub, Max
AU3 - 
AB - Natural disasters are likely to increase in the near future. How does the emergence of such events influence voting behavior? While the literature has focused on the elec- toral repercussions after disaster has already struck, we investigate whether immi- nent disaster influences vote choice. We study the effect of the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic on electoral choice in a setting that allows for causal identification: the local elections in Germany’s southern state Bavaria in March 2020, where, at the time of the elections, only an as-if random sample of localities had recorded cases of COVID-19. We find that initial local outbreaks favored the political party govern- ing at the state level and hurt the far right. These findings are most likely driven by a ‘strategic alignment’ mechanism, whereby voters choose the party or candidate they believe is best placed to help them through the crisis. Keywords Voting · Elections · Natural disasters · Natural experiment · COVID-19 Introduction As a consequence of global warming, natural disasters of various kinds are set to increase in both frequency and intensity in the decades to come (Hirabayashi, 2013; Knutson, 2010; McMichael et al., 2006). Citizens and policymakers will, therefore, increasingly have to make political decisions 
TI - Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic
DO - 10.31235/osf.io/a32r7
DA - 2020-04-12
UR - https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/unpaywall/strategic-alignment-in-times-of-crisis-voting-at-the-dawn-of-a-global-Rrtv0RPcCB
DP - DeepDyve
ER -