Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 7-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

The impact of potential abrupt climate changes on near-term policy choices

The impact of potential abrupt climate changes on near-term policy choices We investigate an important scientific uncertainty facing climate-change policymakers, namely, the impact of potential abrupt climatic change. We examine sequential decision strategies for abating climate change where near-term policies are viewed as the first of a series of decisions which adapt over the years to improving scientific information. We compare two illustrative near-term (1992–2002) policies - moderate and aggressive emission reductions - followed by a subsequent long-term policy chosen to limit global-mean temperature change to a specified ‘climate target’. We calculate the global-mean surface temperature change using a simple climate/ocean model and simple models of greenhouse-gas concentrations. We alter model parameters to examine the impact of abrupt changes in the sinks of carbon dioxide, the sources of methane, the circulation of the oceans, and the climate sensitivity, ΔT 2x. Although the abrupt changes increase the long-term costs of responding to climate change, they do not significantly affect the comparatively small cost difference between near-term strategies. Except for an abrupt increase in ΔT 2x, the investigated abrupt climate changes do not significantly alter the values of the climate target for which each near-term strategy is preferred. In contrast, innovations that reduce the cost of limiting greenhouse-gas emissions offer the potential for substantial abatement cost savings, regardless of which level of near-term abatement is selected. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

The impact of potential abrupt climate changes on near-term policy choices

Download PDF
26 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/the-impact-of-potential-abrupt-climate-changes-on-near-term-policy-Gk4jqdcXsk

References (30)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
DOI
10.1007/BF01094402
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We investigate an important scientific uncertainty facing climate-change policymakers, namely, the impact of potential abrupt climatic change. We examine sequential decision strategies for abating climate change where near-term policies are viewed as the first of a series of decisions which adapt over the years to improving scientific information. We compare two illustrative near-term (1992–2002) policies - moderate and aggressive emission reductions - followed by a subsequent long-term policy chosen to limit global-mean temperature change to a specified ‘climate target’. We calculate the global-mean surface temperature change using a simple climate/ocean model and simple models of greenhouse-gas concentrations. We alter model parameters to examine the impact of abrupt changes in the sinks of carbon dioxide, the sources of methane, the circulation of the oceans, and the climate sensitivity, ΔT 2x. Although the abrupt changes increase the long-term costs of responding to climate change, they do not significantly affect the comparatively small cost difference between near-term strategies. Except for an abrupt increase in ΔT 2x, the investigated abrupt climate changes do not significantly alter the values of the climate target for which each near-term strategy is preferred. In contrast, innovations that reduce the cost of limiting greenhouse-gas emissions offer the potential for substantial abatement cost savings, regardless of which level of near-term abatement is selected.

Journal

Climatic Change – Springer Journals

Published: Jan 19, 2005

There are no references for this article.