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- Publisher
- SAGE
- Copyright
- Copyright © by SAGE Publications
- ISSN
- 0048-5853
- DOI
- 10.1177/109114219302100102
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
The ratchet theory of government growth hypothesizes that temporary crises causegovernment spending to rise and to remain permanently higher than if the criseshad not occurred. An examination of federal government spending in the UnitedStates since 1800 reveals apparent ratchets associated with the Great Depression,the two world wars, and the Civil War. After taking account of war-related spendingand serial correlation in the data, however, only the World War I and GreatDepression ratchets can be clearly identified, and they are closely associated witha major change in the underlying growth rate of government spending early in the20th century. This casts doubt on the ratchet theory of government growth andinstead raises the question of why the trend growth rate of government was so muchgreater in the 20th century than in the 19th.
Journal
Public Finance Quarterly – SAGE
Published: Jan 1, 1993