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Reasons for Larger Warming Projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report

Reasons for Larger Warming Projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report Projections of future warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) are substantially larger than those in the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The reasons for these differences are documented and quantified. Differences are divided into differences in the emissions scenarios and differences in the science (gas cycle, forcing, and climate models). The main source of emissions-related differences in warming is aerosol forcing, primarily due to large differences in SO 2 emissions between the SAR and TAR scenarios. For any given emissions scenario, concentration projections based on SAR and TAR science are similar, except for methane at high emissions levels where TAR science leads to substantially lower concentrations. The new (TAR) science leads to slightly lower total forcing and slightly larger warming. At the low end of the warming range the effects of the new science and the new emissions scenarios are roughly equal. At the high end, TAR science has a smaller effect and the main reason for larger TAR warming is the use of a different high-end emissions scenario, primarily changes in SO 2 emissions. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society

Reasons for Larger Warming Projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report

Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.
Journal of Climate , Volume 15 (20) – Sep 25, 2001
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References (24)

Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Copyright
Copyright © 2001 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2945:RFLWPI>2.0.CO;2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Projections of future warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) are substantially larger than those in the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The reasons for these differences are documented and quantified. Differences are divided into differences in the emissions scenarios and differences in the science (gas cycle, forcing, and climate models). The main source of emissions-related differences in warming is aerosol forcing, primarily due to large differences in SO 2 emissions between the SAR and TAR scenarios. For any given emissions scenario, concentration projections based on SAR and TAR science are similar, except for methane at high emissions levels where TAR science leads to substantially lower concentrations. The new (TAR) science leads to slightly lower total forcing and slightly larger warming. At the low end of the warming range the effects of the new science and the new emissions scenarios are roughly equal. At the high end, TAR science has a smaller effect and the main reason for larger TAR warming is the use of a different high-end emissions scenario, primarily changes in SO 2 emissions.

Journal

Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society

Published: Sep 25, 2001

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