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- Publisher
- Wiley
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- eISSN
- 1944-8007
- DOI
- 10.1029/2006GL025983
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
Observations suggest that the mixing ratio of water vapour in the stratosphere has increased by 20–50% between the 1960s and mid‐1990s. Here we show that inclusion of such a stratospheric water vapour (SWV) increase in a state‐of‐the‐art climate model modifies the circulation of the extratropical troposphere: the modeled increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 40% of the observed increase in NAO index between 1965 and 1995, suggesting that if the SWV trend is real, it explains a significant fraction of the observed NAO trend. Our results imply that SWV changes provide a novel mechanism for communicating the effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions and ENSO events to the extratropical troposphere over timescales of a few years, which provides a mechanism for interannual climate predictability. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of regional climate change associated with changes in methane emissions.
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley
Published: May 1, 2006